Jerome Powell

Global supply chain and US port bottlenecks will work themselves out during 2022.

“And I think this stuff will work itself out over the course of next year.”

Said on

3 November 2021 · FOMC press conference, answering about supply-chain bottlenecks in global goods and US ports

Source

Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 3, 2021 · Federal Reserve

Should come true

2022

How sure they sounded

I think; my baseline understanding

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Supply bottlenecks were a central driver of 2021-22 inflation across the US economy.

Outcome

Partly right

The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index peaked around December 2021 and fell sharply through 2022, but was still above its historical average at end-2022 and only normalized in early 2023. Bottlenecks largely but not fully worked out within 2022, so partial is the cautious call.

Evidence:

• https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi