Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla's Robotaxi service will cover areas home to half the US population by the end of 2025.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elon Musk | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20% |
| Jamie Dimon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Larry Summers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Paul Krugman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ray Kurzweil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
SpaceX will have built a self-sustaining city on Mars by around 2044.
“Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years”
Pending ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist by around the end of 2025.
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”
Inaccurate ●●●●●
New US COVID-19 cases will fall to close to zero by the end of April 2020.
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
Right, but late ●●●●●
Tesla will operate autonomous robotaxis, in at least some jurisdictions, in 2020.
“I feel very confident in predicting autonomous robotaxis next year”
Pending ●●●●●
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will be feature complete in 2019: able to pick you up in a parking lot and drive you to your destination without intervention.
“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year”
Right, but late ●●●●●
A Tesla will complete a fully autonomous demonstration drive from Los Angeles to New York, with no human touch, by the end of 2017.
“all the way from LA to New York … by the end of next year”
Inaccurate ●●●●●
SpaceX will launch the first people to Mars in 2024, arriving in 2025.
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025”