Pending ●●●●●
SpaceX will have built a self-sustaining city on Mars by around 2044.
“Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years”Space
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Allan Lichtman | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% | |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 67% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 11 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 67% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 44% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% | |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% | |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Humanity will detect a signal from an extraterrestrial civilization before the end of 2100.
“In this century, there is a very good chance that we will pick up a signal from another planet.”Space
Pending ●●●●●
Humans will travel to Mars around the 2030s (by end of 2039), after using the Moon as a base.
“first to the moon, using the moon as a base, and then on to Mars perhaps around the 2030s.”Space
Inaccurate ●●●●●
SpaceX will launch the first people to Mars in 2024, arriving in 2025.
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025”Space