Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will end 2026 at about 8,000.
“We are giving a mid-year update and raising our year-end target for S & P 500 to 8,000 from 7,700.”Markets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 10,000 by the end of 2029.
“Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
After the early-2026 war-driven sell-off, the S&P 500 will return to a new all-time high.
“So I think stocks are now on the process to go back to their all-time highs.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation for 2026 will be between 2% and 2.5%.
“As a result, the inflation outlook looks quite good for 2026. We would be between 2% and 2.5%, which is very close to the Fed target.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
S&P 500 operating earnings per share will be about $310 for calendar 2026, up from $268 in 2025.
“We expect that S&P 500 companies' collective earnings per share will increase from $268 this year to $310 next year,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will trade above $100,000 at some point between November 26 and December 31, 2025.
“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by the end of 2026.
“We are still targeting 7700 by the end of next year.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Ether will trade between $10,000 and $12,000 by the end of 2025.
“For Ethereum, somewhere between [$10,000] and $12,000,”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 6,600 by the end of 2025 (with 7,700 targeted for the end of 2026).
“This is why we're sticking with our S&P 500 targets — 6,600 by the end of 2025 and 7,700 by the end of next year.”Markets
Partly right ●●●●●
Bitcoin will close well above $100,000 before the end of 2024.
“I'm still confident bitcoin is going to close much higher before year-end — well above $100,000 before year-end”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump will lose the November 2024 U.S. presidential election (Kamala Harris will win).
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins”ElectionsPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by the end of the decade (end of 2029).
“We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 5,800 by the end of 2024.
“We are raising our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2024 will bring the biggest stock market crash of our lifetimes (he cited an 86% fall in the S&P 500).
“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes.”Markets
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 5,000 by the end of 2024 (from about 4,538 in November 2023).
“Broadly speaking, I actually agree with Savita Subramanian at Bank of America that we could go to 5000 on the S&P”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will soon fall sharply from its roughly $27,000 price in October 2023.
“I can't go out with bitcoin [BTC] because I can't be in something where Mr. Bitcoin is about to go down big”CryptoMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will rally into the end of 2023 and finish the year much higher than its October 3, 2023 close of about 4,229.
“I'm pretty confident that we're going to have a nice rally into year end, much higher from where we are now,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The bull market will continue through at least end-2024, with the S&P 500 setting a new record high between 4,800 and 5,400 within 18 months of July 2023.
“We see the bull market that started on October 12, 2022, continuing through at least the end of next year with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high somewhere between 4,800 and 5,400 over the next 18 months”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US stocks will keep falling in a crash (S&P 500 down as much as 86%) to an ultimate low around July 2024.
“I feel like the ultimate low at this point for stocks is likely to be… July or so of 2024,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,900/oz) will fall to $900-$1,000 an ounce by mid-2024.
“I'm predicting that gold goes down to $900 to $1,000.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin (then about $23,000) will fall to $3,250 before starting a longer-term boom.
“I think it goes down to $3,250, and then it starts a longer-term boom,”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
US stocks will deliver strong gains in calendar year 2023.
“I think 2023 is going to be a very good year for equities.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will begin cutting the federal funds rate by mid-2023 (June 30, 2023).
“I think the Fed will start bringing down the funds rate by mid-year 2023.”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
In 2023 the US will avoid an economy-wide recession (seeing only a rolling, sector-by-sector one), and the stock bear market will not continue.
“We're more optimistic, expecting no broad-based recession but a rolling one, no continued bear market in stocks”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
U.S. stocks will do much better over the four weeks after November 18, 2022 (to about December 16, 2022).
“You've got to adjust your mindset to a world where the bears are finally in retreat, because I'm betting the next four weeks will be much better than what we've come to be used to”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500's June 2022 low (3,666.77 close on June 16) will hold as the bear-market bottom, with no lower close afterward.
“I'm betting the market will bend, not break, through a rough September, and when we get through that period, that June low will hold.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The June 2022 low was the bottom of the 2022 bear market, and the Fed would pivot away from tightening within about two months (by end of September 2022).
“This is the August 1982 moment, bottom is in but Fed is two months away from a pivot”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will fall to about $12,000 (from roughly $20,000 in June 2022).
“I think it goes to $12,000, where it was before this whole fiasco began.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Amazon, Meta and Alphabet shares had bottomed as of May 31, 2022 and were ready to rally rather than fall further.
“they’ve fallen so darn far that I think they’ve become metaphors for a whole host of stocks that are now ready to rally because they’ve got nowhere else to go but up”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500's 2022 low was already set by the end of Q1 2022 (no lower close later in 2022).
“And with 1Q2022 behind us, we now assign a > 88% probability that the bottom for 2022 is in.”Markets