Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 10,000 by the end of 2029.
“Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029,”Markets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
A major US dollar and sovereign-debt crisis, bigger than the 2008 financial crisis, will hit by the end of 2027.
“Gold and silver are warning about a bigger crisis that's gonna hit either later this year or maybe next year.”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Silver (then about $75/oz) will break above $100 an ounce during 2026.
“Regardless of a potential correction, the price should break above $100 next year. This time it is different.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation for 2026 will be between 2% and 2.5%.
“As a result, the inflation outlook looks quite good for 2026. We would be between 2% and 2.5%, which is very close to the Fed target.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
During 2026 the Federal Reserve will expand its Treasury purchases beyond $40 billion a month.
“Sometime next year, maybe even the first half of next year, they're going to end up expanding that to more than $40 billion”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
S&P 500 operating earnings per share will be about $310 for calendar 2026, up from $268 in 2025.
“We expect that S&P 500 companies' collective earnings per share will increase from $268 this year to $310 next year,”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by the end of 2026.
“We are still targeting 7700 by the end of next year.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2026.
“But I would guess that by the first quarter of next year, we'll be back at the 3% or 4% growth pace,”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 6,600 by the end of 2025 (with 7,700 targeted for the end of 2026).
“This is why we're sticking with our S&P 500 targets — 6,600 by the end of 2025 and 7,700 by the end of next year.”Markets
Partly right ●●●●●
Because of Trump's tariffs, US year-over-year inflation will rise to at least 3% in 2025.
“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”EconomyPolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
In 2025 the US will have little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment and persistent inflation.
“Slower growth is certain. For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.”EconomyPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
US potential GDP growth will rise to about 4% a year by 2030, driven by AI and other technologies.
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”EconomyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a recession as a result of the 2025 Trump tariffs, adding about 2 million unemployed.
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at most once in 2025.
“I think if we're lucky we'll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn't surprise me if we get none”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The US will suffer a major government debt crisis within about three years (by early 2029 at the latest) unless the deficit is cut.
“I can't tell you exactly when it'll come, it's like the heart attack. You're getting closer. My guess would be three years, give or take a year, something like that.”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
US real GDP growth in 2025 will be lower than in 2024.
“Growth may remain above potential – given strong tailwinds – but it will be lower than in 2024.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Gold (then around $2,600/oz) will not fall back to $2,000 an ounce.
“I don't think gold's going back to $2,000,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates after its September 2024 cut.
“The good news is, interest rates will continue to come down.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
After the Fed's September 2024 rate cut, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields (then about 3.7% and 4.1%) will rise, possibly significantly, within about a year.
“My suspicion is that there's some upwards adjustment ahead in longer term rates — perhaps quite significant upwards adjustment in the 10-year rate or the 30-year rate”MarketsEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by the end of the decade (end of 2029).
“We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 5,800 by the end of 2024.
“We are raising our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
Generative AI will not produce a productivity boom (a sharp, sustained jump in US productivity growth) by March 2029.
“I don’t think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
US Treasury bill rates will average well above 3% from 2024 through the end of 2029.
“One would want to be guessing that Treasury bill rates will be averaging well above 3% through the rest of this decade”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its March 2024 meeting.
“March is completely off the table.”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China's GDP growth in 2024 will be only slightly above 4%, helped by a moderate stimulus.
“China will most likely implement a moderate stimulus that is sufficient to get growth slightly above 4% in 2024.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After US spot bitcoin ETFs launch (January 2024), expected investor demand will fail to appear and bitcoin's price (then about $45,000) will fall sharply (read as during 2024).
“Once the ETFs are launched and the highly anticipated institutional and other new investor demand does not show up, look out below!”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2024 will bring the biggest stock market crash of our lifetimes (he cited an 86% fall in the S&P 500).
“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once more after its July 2023 hike, within the next few months (by end of January 2024).
“My best guess would be that we’re going to need more interest-rate increasing”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The bull market will continue through at least end-2024, with the S&P 500 setting a new record high between 4,800 and 5,400 within 18 months of July 2023.
“We see the bull market that started on October 12, 2022, continuing through at least the end of next year with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high somewhere between 4,800 and 5,400 over the next 18 months”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
From late June 2023, the Fed, ECB and Bank of England will each raise interest rates further before pausing (inferred window: rest of 2023).
“The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and most other major central banks will have to raise rates even more before they can pause.”EconomyMarkets