Unresolvable ●●●●●
The AI stock bubble will burst within about a year, i.e. by the end of September 2027 (moved up from his earlier 2028 base case).
“the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later.”AIMarkets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Real GDP growth will regularly exceed 7% a year at some point between late 2029 and September 2031, driven by AI.
“We think that during the next three to five years, we will be seeing regularly and perhaps on average growth north of 7%”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Within several years (by about 2030), most glasses people wear will be AI glasses.
“It's hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren't AI glasses.”TechnologyAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
AI will displace about half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within 1-5 years of his May 2025 warning (by mid-2030).
“This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025, where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”EconomyAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
There is a decent chance "powerful AI" (smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most fields, working autonomously) arrives within 1-2 years (by early 2028), and a very strong chance it arrives within the next few years.
“not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1–2 years, but that there’s a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist no later than the end of 2027.
“I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year … No later than next year.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 or 2027.
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
AI will be an election issue in the November 2026 US midterm elections, for the first time.
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”ElectionsAIPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, domestic humanoid robots such as Tesla Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos, with very little real product in homes.
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI's annual revenue will top $100 billion in 2027.
“How about '27?”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, AI models will be extraordinarily capable and able to do things humans themselves cannot do.
“by the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don't have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”AI
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI will become a hyperscale company valued at more than $2 trillion.
“OpenAI is very likely going to be the world's next multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company”MarketsAI
Pending ●●●●●
A large share of current phone and online customer-support workers will lose their jobs to AI (no window given; inferred about 10 years, to 2035).
“I'm confident that a lot of current customer support that happens over a phone or computer, those people will lose their jobs, and that'll be better done by an AI.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
AI will cause massive unemployment alongside a large rise in corporate profits.
“It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Spending on AI infrastructure will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion (per year) by 2030.
“We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”AIMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Context-aware AI glasses will become people's primary computing devices, replacing phones (no date given; inferred long-run window of about 10 years, to 2035).
“Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices.”TechnologyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla's Robotaxi service will cover areas home to half the US population by the end of 2025.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”Self-drivingAI
Pending ●●●●●
Superhuman AI of the kind described in the AI 2027 scenario will not arrive by the end of 2027.
“I acknowledge that I personally have longer-than-2027 timelines”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By mid-2030, AI will be able to do 80% of the work of any economically valuable job humans do.
“Within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of the 2030s, almost every household (in developed markets) will have a humanoid robot at home.
“almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
The 2030s will see a higher rate of Fortune 500 companies failing or dropping off the list than any previous decade.
“One of my predictions is the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we've ever seen”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
AI will soon eliminate the need for legal assistants and paralegals.
“Someone like a legal assistant or paralegal — they're not going to be needed for very long.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, AI systems capable of producing genuinely novel insights will arrive.
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”AI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2027, robots that can do useful tasks in the real world will arrive.
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
US potential GDP growth will rise to about 4% a year by 2030, driven by AI and other technologies.
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By late October 2026, most of the code for Meta's AI (Llama) research efforts will be written by AI.
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By about April 2026, roughly half of Meta's (Llama) software development will be done by AI rather than people.
“our bet is sort of that in the next year... maybe half the development is going to be done by AI as opposed to people”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
AI systems reading medical images will become considerably better than expert human readers.
“And they're about comparable with the experts by now. They'll soon be considerably better because they'll have had a lot more experience.”HealthAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
AGI/superintelligence (AI surpassing humans across domains) will arrive by April 2035.
“there's a good chance it'll be here in 10 years or less now.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence, as smart as the smartest human experts across fields, will exist by April 2030.
“within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence, AGI”AI