Author of The Coming Collapse of China (2001); commentator on China
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“Russia produced 9.9 million barrels per day, and thanks to Ukraine's punishing attacks on refineries, Russia's production will almost certainly decline this year.”EnergyGeopolitics
“it is unlikely that China will launch hostilities by invading the main island of Taiwan or even provoking a fight by imposing a blockade or quarantine.”Geopolitics
“If, as is more likely, Xi's enemies arranged the removals, China will almost certainly have a new leader soon.”PoliticsGeopolitics
“An event like that is coming. Retired Admiral James Stavridis in 2021 co-authored 2034: A Novel of the Next World War. It is unlikely, however, that bad actors will give America a decade more to prepare.”Geopolitics
“Moreover, the economy will not grow 6.2 percent in the first half, as official sources are predicting.”Economy
“This year, the military is slated to get 7.2% more, and economic growth will again fall short.”Economy
“China is not going to have a good 2023 or a good 2024. Foreigners are going to lose money in China again.”EconomyMarkets
“Moreover, the central bank's new digital currency, now circulating in trial runs and soon to be introduced nationwide, is going to undercut Alipay and other mobile payment apps.”BankingTechnology
“Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it.”Politics
“The end of the modern Chinese state is near. The People's Republic has five years, perhaps ten, before it falls.”Politics