Gordon Chang

China's central-bank digital currency (e-CNY) will undercut Alipay and other mobile payment apps within about two years.

“Moreover, the central bank's new digital currency, now circulating in trial runs and soon to be introduced nationwide, is going to undercut Alipay and other mobile payment apps.”

Said on

12 November 2020 · Gatestone Institute column on the suspension of Ant Group's IPO. No window stated; inferred about 2 years given "soon to be introduced nationwide".

Source

China Squashes a Giant Ant and Nukes Its Financial System · Gatestone Institute

Should come true

by 2022

How sure they sounded

is going to

Categories

BankingTechnology

Importance

2 of 5 · Matters to China's payments industry and Ant Group.

Outcome

Inaccurate

Inferred window about 2 years (end of 2022). By end-2021 only about 6 million of 260 million registered e-CNY users actively paid with it, and e-CNY in circulation in late 2022 was tiny, while Alipay and WeChat Pay stayed dominant. The digital yuan did not undercut them.

Evidence:

• https://www.merics.org/en/comment/digital-yuan-struggles-find-chinese-shoppers-willing-spend-it