Pending ●●●●●
Within several years (by about 2030), most glasses people wear will be AI glasses.
“It's hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren't AI glasses.”TechnologyAI
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 or 2027.
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, domestic humanoid robots such as Tesla Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos, with very little real product in homes.
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Context-aware AI glasses will become people's primary computing devices, replacing phones (no date given; inferred long-run window of about 10 years, to 2035).
“Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of the 2030s, almost every household (in developed markets) will have a humanoid robot at home.
“almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home”TechnologyAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2027, robots that can do useful tasks in the real world will arrive.
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By late October 2026, most of the code for Meta's AI (Llama) research efforts will be written by AI.
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By about April 2026, roughly half of Meta's (Llama) software development will be done by AI rather than people.
“our bet is sort of that in the next year... maybe half the development is going to be done by AI as opposed to people”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A cyberattack will take down a Canadian bank by April 2035.
“But over the next 10 years, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a cyber attack that took down a Canadian bank.”BankingTechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Humanoid robots will be in widespread use (starting in factories) within a few years, before 2030.
“when, literally, humanoid robots are wandering around, which is not five years away. This is not five-years-away problem, this is a few-years-away problem.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045, the bipedal/humanoid robot industry will be larger than the auto industry.
“I think what I would say is this business of bipedal robots or some equivalent like that in various form factors and configurations will be larger than the auto industry within 20 years.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Threads will become the leading online discussion platform and reach 1 billion users within the next several years.
“I expect Threads to continue on its trajectory to become the leading discussion platform and eventually reach 1 billion people over the next several years.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
During 2025 it will become possible to build an AI engineering agent with the coding and problem-solving ability of a good mid-level software engineer.
“I also expect that 2025 will be the year when it becomes possible to build an AI engineering agent that has coding and problem-solving abilities of around a good mid-level engineer.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Very useful quantum computers will not arrive before roughly 2040, most likely around 2045, and by 2055 at the latest.
“15 years for useful quantum computers and that would be on the early side. 30 years is probably on the late side. If you picked 20 years a whole bunch of us would believe it.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Helion will soon (within about two years, by early 2027) demonstrate net-gain fusion, showing that fusion works.
“Soon. Well, soon there will be a demonstration of net-gain fusion. … But I would expect Helion will show you that fusion works soon.”EnergyTechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved by the end of 2025.
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
Through 2025, truly driverless cars will be in use in only a modest number of cities, mainly in the West and in good weather.
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather.”Self-drivingAITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
In 2025, profits from AI models (as opposed to chips) will remain modest or nonexistent.
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”AITechnologyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
In 2025 nobody will release a humanoid robot remotely as capable as a general household robot ("Rosie the Robot").
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.”AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
Within about two years of September 2024, AI models will act as autonomous personal assistants that carry out specific tasks on users' behalf.
“AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf.”AITechnology
Partly right ●●●●●
By the end of 2024, Meta AI will be the most used AI assistant in the world.
“We had a strong quarter, and Meta AI is on track to be the most used AI assistant in the world by the end of the year”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla will have genuinely useful Optimus humanoid robots in low-volume production, working inside Tesla, during 2025.
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The average cost of an electric vehicle will fall by half between April 2024 and April 2029.
“we think the cost of an electric vehicle, the average electric vehicle, is going to be cut in half”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
LLM hallucination rates will not be brought down to human-expert levels by the end of 2024.
“If hallucinations were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024 I would be truly astonished.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The global installed base of data centers will double from about $1 trillion to about $2 trillion by early 2029.
“Over the course of the next four or five years, we’ll have $2 trillion worth of data centers that will be powering software around the world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Electric vehicles will make up the large majority of new car sales by February 2029.
“We think electric vehicles are going to continue to gain share and really take over the market in the next five years.”TechnologyEnergy
Pending ●●●●●
By November 2028, AI agents will let people do tasks by telling their device in everyday language, so they no longer need separate apps for different tasks.
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
A one-person company will reach a $1 billion valuation, enabled by AI.
“Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By 2038, quantum computers will be powerful enough to break today's standard encryption codes (e.g. RSA).
“We're talking about ten, 15 years in the future when quantum computers are so powerful they can break any code.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
OpenAI's upcoming GPT-4 will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks.
“GPT-4 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”AITechnology