Pending ●●●●●
US potential GDP growth will rise to about 4% a year by 2030, driven by AI and other technologies.
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”EconomyAI
Nouriel Roubini
Economist and NYU professor emeritus, known as "Dr. Doom"
EconomistCommentator21predictions
3pending
5accurate
2late or partial
10inaccurate
35%accuracy
Predictions
Sort: newest · most important · target date
Accurate ●●●●●
US real GDP growth in 2025 will be lower than in 2024.
“Growth may remain above potential – given strong tailwinds – but it will be lower than in 2024.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China's GDP growth in 2024 will be only slightly above 4%, helped by a moderate stimulus.
“China will most likely implement a moderate stimulus that is sufficient to get growth slightly above 4% in 2024.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
From late June 2023, the Fed, ECB and Bank of England will each raise interest rates further before pausing (inferred window: rest of 2023).
“The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and most other major central banks will have to raise rates even more before they can pause.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will enter a severe, long recession starting around end-2022 and lasting through 2023.
“It's not going to be a short and shallow recession; it's going to be severe, long, and ugly,”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, oil prices will spike to well above $100 a barrel in the short term (inferred window: 2022).
“Oil and natural gas prices will spike further – to well above $100 per barrel – as will many other commodity prices”EnergyGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will "wimp out" and postpone finishing its taper and raising interest rates in the face of stagflation (inferred window about one year, to end-2022).
“They are going to postpone any finishing of tapering or raising rates.”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
After a weak U-shaped recovery from the COVID-19 recession, the world economy will fall into an L-shaped "Greater Depression" before the end of the 2020s.
“an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall to zero (inferred window about 10 years, to mid-2029).
“Indeed Bitcoin is now down below 10k. Has lost a third of its value in less than a week. Still a long way to less than zero as its true value is negative not zero given its toxic externalities! It will get to zero in due time.”CryptoMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
XRP and the other non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will all go bust (become essentially worthless).
“XRP, all the other ones, they're all going bust.”CryptoMarkets
Partly right ●●●●●
By 2020 a financial crisis will occur, followed by a global recession.
“But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”EconomyBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will not return to $100 a barrel (long-run claim, inferred window about 10 years to 2025).
“But we're not going to go back to a world of... $100 per barrel.”EnergyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will rise gradually from about $57 (WTI) over the 18 months to end-2016.
“I think that, over the next year and a half, gradually all [oil] prices are going to go higher.”EnergyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Gold will fall from about $1,400 to around $1,000 an ounce by the end of 2015.
“and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2013 a "global perfect storm" (euro debt crisis, US fiscal tightening, China hard landing, emerging-market slowdown) will hit the world economy.
“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will default on its debt and leave the eurozone by the end of 2013.
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
China's economy will suffer a hard landing (a sharp growth collapse) sometime after 2013.
“There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
About half of the 800-plus troubled small and medium-sized US banks (roughly 400 banks) will fail in the following few years.
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 index will fall to 600 or below in 2009.
“My main scenario is that it's highly likely it goes to 600 or below,”Markets
Partly right ●●●●●
US GDP will keep contracting throughout 2009, for a cumulative output loss of about 5%, in a recession lasting close to two years.
“U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will suffer a hard landing and fall into recession, driven by a housing bust (probability above 70%).
“U.S. Hard Landing and Recession Steaming Ahead: Now More Likely Than a 70% Probability”Economy