A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Allan Lichtman | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% | |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 58% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 11 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 67% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 44% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 39% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 75% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% | |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% | |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”Economy
“We also believe that within one year you will have graduate level mathematicians that are at the tippy top of graduate math programs.”AI
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”AI
“It's not going to be a short and shallow recession; it's going to be severe, long, and ugly,”Economy
“If you project realistically, when we will be able to get enough data to be able to say that elementary school children will be able to be vaccinated, I would think that would be, at the earliest, the end of the year, and very likely the first quarter of 2022,”Health
“But by the time you mobilize the distribution of the vaccine and get a majority or more of the population vaccinated and protected, that's likely not going to happen until the end of 2021,”Health
“So the whole process is going to take a year, a year and a half at least.”Health
“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year”Self-driving
“I would say three and a half is looking like a pretty comfortable number right now”Economy
“By 2020, they will have caught up.”AI
“In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore's Law”Technology
“before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity”Economy