A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“So white-collar work, where you're sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person — most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”AIEconomy
“This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025, where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”EconomyAI
“not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1–2 years, but that there’s a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.”AI
“We are going to have AI systems that have humanlike and human-level intelligence, but they’re not going to be built on LLMs, and it’s not going to happen next year or two years from now.”AI
“In five years' time, everybody will have their own AI companion who knows them so intimately and so personally that they will come to live life alongside you”AITechnology
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”ElectionsAIPolitics
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
“It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.”EconomyAI
“And fusion I think is definitely doable, it seems, if we have the right design of reactor and we can control the plasma and fast enough and so on, and I think both of those things will actually get solved. So we'll probably have at least those are probably the two primary source…”EnergyClimate
“New types of solar material, solar panel material room temperature superconductors has always been on my list of dream breakthroughs, and optimal batteries. And I think a solution to any one of those things would be absolutely revolutionary for climate and energy usage. And we'r…”AIEnergyClimate
“Someone like a legal assistant or paralegal — they're not going to be needed for very long.”EconomyAI
“My guess is between 10 and 20 years we'll have superintelligence”AI
“And I think for mundane intellectual labor, AI is just going to replace everybody.”EconomyAI
“And they're about comparable with the experts by now. They'll soon be considerably better because they'll have had a lot more experience.”HealthAI
“But over the next 10 years, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a cyber attack that took down a Canadian bank.”BankingTechnology
“there's a good chance it'll be here in 10 years or less now.”AI
“In the next five to ten years, I think.”AI
“I also think another big area will be robotics. I think it will have a breakthrough moment in the next couple of years where we'll have demonstrations of maybe humanoid robots or other types of robots that can start really doing useful things.”TechnologyAI
“I think actually in the next maybe five to ten years. I think we'll have systems that are capable of not only solving an important problem or conjecture in science but coming up with it in the first place.”AI
“Nvidia is way ahead of Huawei, which is the main producer of—which is the main producer of chips for China. Like something like four years ahead. I think that gap is going to close eventually, over the course of, I don’t know, ten or twenty years. Probably the export controls ma…”GeopoliticsAITechnology
“the same exponential trends, the same arguments that predicted that, predict that if we go forward another two years, three years, maybe four years, we will get to all of this. We will get to models that are as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across a whole bunch of fields.”AI
“we are not far from the world—I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.”AI
“Possibly by 2026 or 2027 (and almost certainly no later than 2030), the capabilities of AI systems will be best thought of as akin to an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people appearing on the global stage—a "country of geniuses in a datacenter"”AI
“Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips, tens of billions of dollars (at least), and is most likely to happen in 2026-2027.”AI
“This means that in 2026-2027 we could end up in one of two starkly different worlds. In the US, multiple companies will definitely have the required millions of chips (at the cost of tens of billions of dollars).”AITechnologyGeopolitics
“I think within five years, nobody in their right mind would use them anymore,”AI
“I think we're probably three to five years away.”AI
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”AITechnologyMarkets
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.”AITechnology