Pending ●●●●●
By January 2030, a new AI architecture paradigm fundamentally different from today's LLMs will be in use.
“within three to five years we'll have systems that are a completely different paradigm.”AI
Yann LeCun
AI pioneer; Turing Award laureate; former chief AI scientist at Meta
AI researcherTech leaderScientist6predictions
5pending
0accurate
0late or partial
1inaccurate
0%accuracy
Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
By January 2030, current-style large language models will no longer be used (at least as the central component of AI systems).
“I think within five years, nobody in their right mind would use them anymore,”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Human-level AI (AGI) will not be achieved within two years of late November 2024, i.e. not by end of November 2026.
“But it's not going to happen next year. It's not going to happen in two years,”AI
Pending ●●●●●
The vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open-source AI platforms.
“So the direction of inevitable direction of history is that the vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open source platforms.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Human-level AI systems (with hierarchical planning and brain-like flexibility) will not exist before March 2034.
“all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
No text-trained language model, however powerful, will ever be able to say that an object on a table moves when the table is pushed.
“If you train a machine as powerful as could be…your GPT-5000, it's never gonna learn about this.”AI