A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“And so when you take these things in combination, I am absolutely certain that the world's GDP is going to accelerate in growth.”EconomyAI
“the idea that somebody's willing to pay $1000 per million tokens is just around the corner. It's not if, it's only when.”AIMarkets
“Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes.”AIEconomy
“Tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”EconomyPolitics
“I think Bitcoin is going to double or triple the performance of the S&P over the next four to eight years.”CryptoMarkets
“It's hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren't AI glasses.”TechnologyAI
“I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year … No later than next year.”AI
“I think we’ll hit AGI next year in ‘26”AI
“I’m confident by 2030, AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”AI
“There's no doubt in my mind, bitcoin will be a larger asset class than gold by the year 2035.”Crypto
“How about '27?”AIEconomy
“I think in 2026, we’ll start to see some of these major banks, like Citi and BNY Mellon, start to custody bitcoin,”BankingCrypto
“My long-term forecast — as it goes up about 30% a year for the next 20 years — we’re headed toward $20 million bitcoin,”Crypto
“I don’t know why it won’t grind up to a million dollars a coin over the next four to eight years,”Crypto
“Our expectation right now is [at the] end of the year it should be about $150,000.”Crypto
“means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon”Geopolitics
“by the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don't have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”AI
“OpenAI is very likely going to be the world's next multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company”MarketsAI
“I'm confident that a lot of current customer support that happens over a phone or computer, those people will lose their jobs, and that'll be better done by an AI.”AIEconomy
“We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”AIMarkets
“I believe that 10 years from now, a small number of ASI leaders will be generating value on a scale equivalent to at least 5% of global GDP—around ¥1,300 trillion.”AIEconomy
“Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices.”TechnologyAI
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”AI
“Winter is not coming back,”Crypto
“You are going to see a crack in the Bond market, OK? It is going to happen”MarketsEconomy
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”AITechnology
“our bet is sort of that in the next year... maybe half the development is going to be done by AI as opposed to people”AITechnology
“within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence, AGI”AI
“So we believe as an industry that in the next one year the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.”AIEconomy