Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence, as smart as the smartest human experts across fields, will exist by April 2030.
“within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence, AGI”AI
Eric Schmidt
Former CEO and executive chairman of Google
Tech leaderBusiness leader10predictions
3pending
1accurate
2late or partial
4inaccurate
29%accuracy
Predictions
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Partly right ●●●●●
By April 2026, AI systems will perform at the level of top graduate mathematics students.
“We also believe that within one year you will have graduate level mathematicians that are at the tippy top of graduate math programs.”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By April 2026, the vast majority of human programmers will have been replaced by AI programmers.
“So we believe as an industry that in the next one year the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Within a decade of 2018, the internet will bifurcate into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet led by America.
“I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet”GeopoliticsTechnology
Pending ●●●●●
China will dominate the AI industries by 2030.
“By 2030, they will dominate the industries.”AIGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China will be better than the United States at artificial intelligence by 2025.
“By 2025, they will be better than us.”AIGeopolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
China will have caught up with the United States in artificial intelligence by 2020.
“By 2020, they will have caught up.”AIGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
About 5 billion people will be online within a decade of April 2013 (by 2023).
“Now think about how amazing it will be when 5B come online in a decade.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Everyone on Earth will be connected to the internet by the end of the 2010s (2019).
“By the end of the decade, everyone on Earth will be connected.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Within six months (by June 2012), app developers will develop for Android first rather than iOS.
“Six months from now you'll say the opposite.”Technology