A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“We think that during the next three to five years, we will be seeing regularly and perhaps on average growth north of 7%”EconomyAI
“During the next few years, we would not be surprised to see the oil price drop back toward ~$30-35 per barrel”Energy
“We are giving a mid-year update and raising our year-end target for S & P 500 to 8,000 from 7,700.”Markets
“So I think stocks are now on the process to go back to their all-time highs.”Markets
“Thereafter, deregulation and other fiscal stimuli should turbocharge the impact of lower interest rates and accelerate GDP growth during the second half of 2026.”Economy
“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,”Crypto
“There's no doubt in my mind, bitcoin will be a larger asset class than gold by the year 2035.”Crypto
“I think in 2026, we’ll start to see some of these major banks, like Citi and BNY Mellon, start to custody bitcoin,”BankingCrypto
“My long-term forecast — as it goes up about 30% a year for the next 20 years — we’re headed toward $20 million bitcoin,”Crypto
“I don’t know why it won’t grind up to a million dollars a coin over the next four to eight years,”Crypto
“We are going to reach a moment in the next year where the conversation will shift from lower interest rates to rising rates”EconomyMarkets
“Our expectation right now is [at the] end of the year it should be about $150,000.”Crypto
“For Ethereum, somewhere between [$10,000] and $12,000,”Crypto
“I acknowledge that I personally have longer-than-2027 timelines”AI
“we believe the current equity market correction is likely to stop short of a bear market and will evolve into a broader-based healthier bull market”Markets
“In our view, the market today is discounting the last leg of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump Administration and the Powell Fed many more degrees of freedom than investors expect, setting up the US economy for a deflationary boom in the second half of this year.”Economy
“I'm still confident bitcoin is going to close much higher before year-end — well above $100,000 before year-end”Crypto
“In the limit (5-10 years into the future), I expect that all rollups will be ZK rollups”Crypto
“I don't know. Over... at least a million.”Crypto
“None of them will be wrapped by a spot ETF, none of them will ever be accepted by Wall Street…”Crypto
“we think the cost of an electric vehicle, the average electric vehicle, is going to be cut in half”Technology
“We think electric vehicles are going to continue to gain share and really take over the market in the next five years.”TechnologyEnergy
“We think interest rates are going to fall sooner and faster than most expect—and that should be supportive of valuations.”EconomyMarkets
“The Federal Reserve has overdone it, we’re going to see a lot more deflation going forward”Economy
“The price is going to adjust up,”Crypto
“I'm pretty confident that we're going to have a nice rally into year end, much higher from where we are now,”Markets
“He can and will.”ElectionsPolitics
“We think that the robotaxi opportunity, globally, will deliver $8 to $10 trillion in revenue by 2030”Self-drivingAIMarkets
“in fact, we are a little higher than that in our base case for the year 2030, and in our bull case, much higher.”Crypto
“I expect prediction markets to not make extreme multibillion-dollar splashes, but continue to steadily grow and become more useful over time.”Crypto