Pending ●●●●●
Superhuman AI of the kind described in the AI 2027 scenario will not arrive by the end of 2027.
“I acknowledge that I personally have longer-than-2027 timelines”AI
Vitalik Buterin
Co-founder of Ethereum
Crypto figureTech leader8predictions
3pending
3accurate
1late or partial
1inaccurate
70%accuracy
Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
By May 2034, all Ethereum rollups will be ZK rollups (no optimistic rollups remaining).
“In the limit (5-10 years into the future), I expect that all rollups will be ZK rollups”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Crypto prediction markets will grow steadily but will not have extreme multibillion-dollar breakout moments.
“I expect prediction markets to not make extreme multibillion-dollar splashes, but continue to steadily grow and become more useful over time.”Crypto
Right, but late ●●●●●
Ethereum's Merge to proof of stake will happen in August 2022.
“If there are no problems, then the merge will happen in August”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Prediction markets will become an increasingly important application on Ethereum in the years after 2021.
“I expect prediction markets to become an increasingly important Ethereum application in the years to come.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Rollups (rather than base-layer execution sharding) will become Ethereum's main scaling strategy in the near and mid term.
“the Ethereum ecosystem is likely to be all-in on rollups (plus some plasma and channels) as a scaling strategy for the near and mid-term future.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Ethereum 2.0 Phase 0 (the proof-of-stake beacon chain) will go live by the end of 2020.
“This will release the proof-of-stake network, which will come online this year.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
The crypto market as a whole will not see another 1,000-fold price increase (to roughly $200 trillion) in the decade after September 2018.
“There isn't an opportunity for yet another 1,000-times growth in anything in the space anymore.”CryptoMarkets