Pending ●●●●●
Tariff revenue will substantially replace the US federal income tax.
“Tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”EconomyPolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Partly right ●●●●●
All hostages held in Gaza will be released very soon (within days) after Israel and Hamas agreed to phase one of the peace plan on October 8, 2025.
“means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon”Geopolitics
Pending ●●●●●
The April 2025 tariffs will bring a large return of manufacturing jobs and factories to the United States.
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The United States will acquire Greenland (gain sovereignty or control of it) by the end of Trump's second term in January 2029.
“One way or the other, we're going to get it”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Trump will win Pennsylvania in the November 5, 2024 presidential election.
“Just 27 days from now, we are going to win Pennsylvania, we are going to defeat Lying Kamala Harris.”Elections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will win New York State in the November 5, 2024 presidential election.
“we are going to win New York.”Elections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US gasoline prices will fall below $2 a gallon.
“We're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon”EnergyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US grocery and consumer prices will fall soon after Trump takes office in January 2025 (by the end of 2025).
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one.”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
An Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza will be in place by Monday, March 4, 2024.
“And my hope is by next Monday, we'll have a ceasefire.”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Russia-Ukraine war will be settled before Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025.
“I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled before I even take office.”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The White House and congressional Republicans will reach a budget/debt-limit agreement and the US will not default on its debt in 2023.
“I'm confident that we'll get the agreement on the budget and America will not default”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Democrats will keep control of the US Senate in the November 8, 2022 midterm elections.
“I think we'll win the Senate, and I think the House is tougher.”Elections
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will not enter a recession following late 2022 (or, if it does, the recession will be very mild).
“I don't think there will be a recession. If it is, it will be a very slight recession.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Because of Western sanctions, Russia's economy will shrink by about half in the coming years.
“The economy is on track to be cut in half in the coming years.”EconomyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Russian forces will attack Ukraine within the week after February 18, 2022, targeting the capital Kyiv.
“we have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Vladimir Putin will send Russian forces into Ukraine.
“My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Most of the US price increases seen in mid-2021 will prove temporary rather than becoming sustained inflation.
“Our experts believe and the data shows that most of the price increases we've seen are—were expected and expected to be temporary.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After the US troop withdrawal, the Taliban will not overrun and take control of all of Afghanistan.
“But the likelihood there's going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will win Michigan in the November 3, 2020 presidential election.
“Two days from now, we are going to win the State of Michigan again”Elections
Accurate ●●●●●
The US will face a severe COVID-19 winter in 2020-21, with the pandemic worsening.
“We're about to go into a dark winter, a dark winter”Health
Partly right ●●●●●
At least five or six more countries will quickly normalize relations with Israel (join the Abraham Accords), within about six months of September 2020.
“we'll have at least five or six countries coming along very quickly”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The US will produce a COVID-19 vaccine before the end of 2020.
“We are delivering lifesaving therapies and will produce a vaccine before the end of the year, or maybe even sooner.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will sign a full health care plan by about August 2, 2020 (within two weeks of July 19, 2020).
“We're signing a health care plan within two weeks”HealthPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A COVID-19 vaccine will be developed and available by the end of 2020.
“And I think we're going to be successful in doing it, and hopefully by the end of the year.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Total US COVID-19 deaths will stay substantially below 100,000.
“The minimum number was 100,000 lives, and I think we'll be substantially under that number”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The coronavirus (COVID-19) will disappear from the United States.
“It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The number of known US COVID-19 cases (15 at the time) will fall to close to zero within a couple of days.
“When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero”Health
Accurate ●●●●●
Over 400 miles of border wall will be built on the US-Mexico border by the end of 2020.
“We're going to have over 400 miles of wall built, much of it is already started, by the end of next year”Politics
Pending ●●●●●
There is a high risk that the number of climate refugees will increase significantly between 2018 and 2030.
“And there is a high risk that over the next 12 years, between now and 2030, the numbers of climate refugees will increase significantly.”ClimateGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will meet its Paris Agreement commitment (26-28% below 2005 emissions by 2025) despite Trump's withdrawal.
“The country as a whole is going to meet the commitments of the Paris agreement, regardless of what Donald Trump says or does.”ClimatePolitics