Pending ●●●●●
2027 will set a new global temperature record of about +1.7°C above the 1880-1920 average.
“We project a global temperature record of +1.7°C in 2027”Climate
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Accurate ●●●●●
Global temperature (vs 1880-1920) will stay above +1.5°C at end-2024 and fall at most slightly below +1.5°C in 2025.
“global temperature will remain above +1.5 °C at the end of 2024 and, at most, barely fall below +1.5 °C in 2025.”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
Global temperature will reach +2°C above the 1880-1920 average by 2045.
“global warming in the next two decades is likely to be about 0.2-0.3 °C per decade, leading to global temperature +2 °C by 2045.”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will shut down by about 2055.
“shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely within the next 20-30 years, unless actions are taken to reduce global warming”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
By about 2034 solar and wind will supply all of humanity's energy.
“So at that rate, in about 10 years, we'll be getting all of our energy that way, and it'll keep getting cheaper.”EnergyClimate
Pending ●●●●●
Global warming will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial before 2050.
“under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050.”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
Global warming (long-term level, not a single year) will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial during the 2020s.
“global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s”Climate
Accurate ●●●●●
Global mean surface temperature in 2023 will be notably higher than in 2022.
“2023 should be notably warmer than 2022”Climate
Accurate ●●●●●
Global mean temperature in 2024 will reach at least +1.4-1.5°C above the 1880-1920 average.
“global temperature in 2024 is likely to reach +1.4-1.5°C”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
Within the next few decades after 2023, the current form of human civilization will end.
“the next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we're used to”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
A shattering collapse of civilization will occur within the next few decades after 2018.
“It [a shattering collapse of civilization] is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems.”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
There is a high risk that the number of climate refugees will increase significantly between 2018 and 2030.
“And there is a high risk that over the next 12 years, between now and 2030, the numbers of climate refugees will increase significantly.”ClimateGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will meet its Paris Agreement commitment (26-28% below 2005 emissions by 2025) despite Trump's withdrawal.
“The country as a whole is going to meet the commitments of the Paris agreement, regardless of what Donald Trump says or does.”ClimatePolitics
Pending ●●●●●
By February 2031, the world will discover a clean-energy breakthrough (cheap, reliable, zero-carbon) capable of powering the world and stopping climate change.
“Within the next 15 years—and especially if young people get involved—I expect the world will discover a clean energy breakthrough that will save our planet and power our world.”EnergyClimate
Partly right ●●●●●
Within 10 years of March 2012 (by March 2022), the costs of solar, wind, hydrogen and other renewables will fall below the cost of fossil fuels.
“The falling cost of solar, hydrogen, renewable, wind power, geothermal power and the rising cost of fossil fuels will cross within 10 years”EnergyClimate
Pending ●●●●●
By 2031 solar power will meet all of the world's energy needs.
“In 20 years we'll be meeting all of our energy needs with solar, based on this trend which has already been underway for 20 years.”EnergyClimate
Accurate ●●●●●
Demand for clean energy and energy efficiency will explode, making clean energy the next great global industry.
“In that kind of a world, demand for clean energy, clean fuel, energy efficiency is clearly going to explode. It's clearly going to be the next great global industry.”EnergyClimate
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The North polar ice cap may well be completely gone (ice-free) by the end of 2013.
“the entire North polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Cellulosic ethanol will be produced at $1.25 per gallon or cheaper within three years (by January 2010).
“I so believe that $1.25 or cheaper cellulosic ethanol is less than three years away”EnergyClimate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Mount Kilimanjaro's snow and ice will be gone by the end of 2016.
“Within the decade, there will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro.”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Glacier National Park will have lost its glaciers by about 2021.
“Within 15 years this will be the park formerly known as Glacier”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
Atmospheric CO2 will reach the projected level he pointed to on his chart (about 500 ppm) by 2056.
“Within less than 50 years, it will be here,”Climate
Accurate ●●●●●
1988 will be the warmest year in the instrumental global temperature record (as of the end of 1988).
“barring a remarkable and improbable cooling, 1988 will be the warmest year on the record.”Climate
Accurate ●●●●●
Human-caused CO2 warming will become detectable above natural climate variability by the end of the 20th century (2000).
“the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century”Climate
Accurate ●●●●●
Global mean temperature will rise during the 1980s (the 1980s will be warmer than the 1970s).
“there is a high probability of warming in the 1980s”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 1985 there will be an utter breakdown of the planet's capacity to support humanity (Ehrlich's stated meaning of "the end").
“Sometime in the next 15 years, the end will come”ClimateHealth