James Hansen

1988 will be the warmest year in the instrumental global temperature record (as of the end of 1988).

“barring a remarkable and improbable cooling, 1988 will be the warmest year on the record.”

Said on

23 June 1988 · Testimony to the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, 23 June 1988 (transcribed excerpt hosted by Pulitzer Center)

Source

Excerpt of "Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change", June 23, 1988 Senate hearing · Pulitzer Center

Should come true

1988

How sure they sounded

barring a remarkable and improbable cooling

Categories

Climate

Importance

2 of 5 · A single-year record; significant mainly to the climate science field and the 1988 public debate.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 1988.

In NASA GISTEMP v4, 1988 (+0.39°C vs 1951-1980) exceeds every earlier year (previous highs 1981 and 1987 at +0.32°C), so it was the warmest year on record at the time; NASA notes 1988 was a globally warmest year. It was surpassed in 1990.

Evidence:

• https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
• https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a014000/a014066/script_32284_00.html