Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at most once in 2025.
“I think if we're lucky we'll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn't surprise me if we get none”Economy
Mohamed El-Erian
Economist; former CEO of PIMCO; chief economic adviser at Allianz
EconomistInvestor9predictions
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Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates after its September 2024 cut.
“The good news is, interest rates will continue to come down.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
US inflation will stop falling and settle around 4% by mid-2023.
“I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US core PCE inflation will stay around 4% or higher at the end of 2023 rather than falling to 2-3%.
“U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
Europe will slide into recession following the Ukraine war while the US economy outperforms it.
“Overall, the US is likely to outperform Europe, which is likely to slide into recession”EconomyGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Russia's economy will contract by about a third as a result of the Ukraine war and sanctions.
“its economy is set also to contract by about a third”EconomyGeopolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
Ukraine's real GDP will fall by well over a third (more than ~33%) in 2022.
“Economic activity in Ukraine is likely to contract by well over a third this year”EconomyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation in the post-pandemic surge will not reach double digits (10% or more).
“we're not going to get to double digit inflation”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will run higher than the Federal Reserve's own projections (Sept 2021 median: 2.2% PCE inflation for 2022).
“I think inflation will remain higher than the Federal Reserve expects and we're going to have to do something about it.”Economy