Mohamed El-Erian

US inflation in the post-pandemic surge will not reach double digits (10% or more).

“we're not going to get to double digit inflation”

Said on

12 December 2021 · Interview on CBS "Face the Nation", responding to comparisons with 1970s inflation

Source

Transcript: Mohamed El-Erian on "Face the Nation," December 12, 2021 · CBS News

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

none (stated flatly)

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Peak US inflation level mattered for US households, Fed policy and comparisons with the 1970s.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2023.

Inferred window: the post-pandemic inflation surge (2021-2023). US CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% year over year in June 2022 and then fell, so it never reached double digits.

Evidence:

• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07132022.htm
• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01112024.htm