Ukraine's real GDP will fall by well over a third (more than ~33%) in 2022.
Partly right ●●●●●
“Economic activity in Ukraine is likely to contract by well over a third this year”
- Said on
- 7 March 2022 · Project Syndicate column
- Source
- The Ukraine War's Multifaceted Economic Fallout · Project Syndicate
- Should come true
- 2022
- How sure they sounded
- likely
- Categories
- EconomyGeopolitics
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · Scale of the war's economic damage to Ukraine, a country-level outcome.
Outcome
Partly right Happened 31 December 2022.
Ukraine's State Statistics Service reported real GDP fell 29.1% in 2022 (later revised to 28.8%). That is a severe contraction but short of "well over a third," so a weaker version of the call came true.
- https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3695610-ukraines-real-gdp-down-by-291-last-year-stats-agency.html
- https://ukranews.com/en/news/990128-state-statistics-service-revises-gdp-dynamics-for-2022-from-29-1-to-28-8
History
- 2026-10-16 23:39:06 · created by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:39:28 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:53:46 · categorized by claude