Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2026.
“But I would guess that by the first quarter of next year, we'll be back at the 3% or 4% growth pace,”Economy
Kevin Hassett
Economist; co-author of Dow 36,000 (1999); former White House CEA chair and National Economic Council director
EconomistPolicymaker7predictions
0pending
1accurate
1late or partial
5inaccurate
21%accuracy
Predictions
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Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate for May 2020 (reported in June 2020) will exceed 20%.
“I'm looking for rates north of 20, sadly.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will be very high in the second half of 2020 (Q3 and Q4), above pre-pandemic quarterly growth rates.
“make the case for very, very high growth in the second half of the year.”EconomyHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow about 3% in 2019.
“We still are very, very confident that we are going to have a 3 percent year for 2019”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at about a 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2018.
“I would say three and a half is looking like a pretty comfortable number right now”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Cutting the US corporate tax rate (as in the 2017 tax bill) will raise median household wages/income by about $4,000 a year relative to baseline within a relatively short time.
“a tax cut like this very conservatively will increase the median wage by about $4,000 a year over a relatively short time”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be closer to 36,000 than to 10,000 (i.e. above 23,000) by January 2010.
“if the Dow is closer to 10,000 than to 36,000 ten years from now, … we will each give $1,000”Markets