Kevin Hassett

US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2026.

“But I would guess that by the first quarter of next year, we'll be back at the 3% or 4% growth pace,”

Said on

11 November 2025 · CNBC interview as National Economic Council director, reported by Reuters on Nov 12, 2025 (interview on the Tuesday, Nov 11).

Source

White House eyes return to growth of 3%, 4% by early 2026 after shutdown knock · Reuters (via Hargreaves Lansdown)

Should come true

Q1 2026

How sure they sounded

I would guess

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · White House forecast of US growth rebound after the 2025 government shutdown.

Outcome

Inaccurate

BEA's third estimate (June 25, 2026) put Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.1 percent annual rate (advance 2.0, second 1.6), below the 3-4 percent pace forecast.

Evidence:

• https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-1st