Kevin Hassett

US real GDP will grow at about a 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2018.

“I would say three and a half is looking like a pretty comfortable number right now”

Said on

4 September 2018 · Fox Business "Countdown to the Closing Bell" interview as CEA chairman.

Source

US GDP growth expected to reach 3.5% in 3Q: Kevin Hassett · Fox Business

Should come true

Q3 2018

How sure they sounded

I would say ... looking like a pretty comfortable number

Categories

Economy

Importance

2 of 5 · Single-quarter US GDP forecast; limited lasting consequence.

Outcome

Partly right

BEA's early estimates matched the call (3.5% advance and second estimate, 3.4% third estimate), but after later annual and comprehensive revisions the current BEA figure for Q3 2018 real GDP growth is 2.5% annualized, well below 3.5%. Because the forecast fit the data available at the time but not the current vintage, partial is the cautious score.

Evidence:

• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
• https://bea.gov/news/2018/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2018-third-estimate-corporate-profits-3rd-quarter-2018