Pending ●●●●●
Within the next few decades after 2023, the current form of human civilization will end.
“the next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we're used to”Climate
Paul Ehrlich
Biologist and author of The Population Bomb (1968)
ScientistCommentator13predictions
2pending
0accurate
1late or partial
10inaccurate
5%accuracy
Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
A shattering collapse of civilization will occur within the next few decades after 2018.
“It [a shattering collapse of civilization] is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems.”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By about 2005, more than 90% of original tropical rainforest will be removed in most areas and half of the organisms in those areas will go extinct.
“since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Before 1985 the world will enter a genuine age of resource scarcity.
“before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2000 the UK will be a group of impoverished islands of about 70 million hungry people, with an even chance that England will no longer exist.
“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”PoliticsEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
Air pollution will kill hundreds of thousands of people within the next few years (by about 1973).
“air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
World population growth will completely outstrip increases in food supply (inferred window: the following decade, to 1980).
“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make”HealthEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 1980, at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death worldwide.
“The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 1985 there will be an utter breakdown of the planet's capacity to support humanity (Ehrlich's stated meaning of "the end").
“Sometime in the next 15 years, the end will come”ClimateHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The greatest death-toll cataclysm in human history will occur within the lifetimes of people already alive in 1969.
“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
India will be unable to feed an additional 200 million people by 1980.
“I don't see how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The world death rate will rise substantially (in the 1970s, per the surrounding passage) because of famine.
“At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Hundreds of millions of people will starve to death during the 1970s.
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”Health