Paul Ehrlich

By about 2005, more than 90% of original tropical rainforest will be removed in most areas and half of the organisms in those areas will go extinct.

“since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”

Said on

1 January 1975 · Written with Anne H. Ehrlich in 1975 (month unknown; Jan 1 used), as quoted by Ronald Bailey in Reason. "Next 30 years or so" gives a window to about 2005.

Source

Earth Day, Then and Now · Reason

Should come true

2000s

How sure they sounded

will be removed; it is expected

Categories

Climate

Importance

4 of 5 · Loss of nearly all tropical rainforest and half its species would be a major global ecological event.

Outcome

Inaccurate

By 2005 most of the tropical rainforest zone was still forested (FAO reported tropical forest losses of roughly 10% per 15 years, not nine-tenths), and documented extinctions were nowhere near half the organisms in these areas.

Evidence:

• https://reason.com/2000/05/01/earth-day-then-and-now-2/
• https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/past-assessments/fra-2005/en/