Paul Ehrlich

Air pollution will kill hundreds of thousands of people within the next few years (by about 1973).

“air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.”

Said on

1 April 1970 · Interview with Peter Collier in Mademoiselle, April 1970 (day unknown; first of month used), as quoted by Ronald Bailey in Reason (ellipsis is Bailey's). "Next few years" taken as about 3 years.

Source

Earth Day, Then and Now · Reason

Should come true

1973

How sure they sounded

certainly going to

Categories

Health

Importance

3 of 5 · Mass deaths from air pollution would matter to public health policy across industrial countries.

Outcome

Partly right

The smog disasters Ehrlich pictured (mass deaths in US cities) did not happen and US air quality improved after the 1970 Clean Air Act. But modern epidemiology attributes millions of deaths a year worldwide to chronic air pollution, so in a literal global sense hundreds of thousands did die; scored partial as the cautious middle.

Evidence:

• https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution
• https://reason.com/2000/05/01/earth-day-then-and-now-2/