Predictions
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Unresolvable ●●●●●
“not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1–2 years, but that there’s a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.”
Said 26 Jan 2026 · Target: Jan 2028
AI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
“This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025, where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”
Said 26 Jan 2026 · Target: May 2030
EconomyAI
Partly right ●●●●●
“we are not far from the world—I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.”
Said 10 Mar 2025 · Target: Sep 2025
AI
Pending ●●●●●
“Possibly by 2026 or 2027 (and almost certainly no later than 2030), the capabilities of AI systems will be best thought of as akin to an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people appearing on the global stage—a "country of geniuses in a datacenter"”
Said 11 Feb 2025 · Target: 2030
AI
Pending ●●●●●
“I think next year we're going to go to a few billion, and then 2026, we may go to above 10 billion. And probably by 2027, their ambitions to build hundred billion dollar clusters. And I think all of that actually will happen.”
Said 11 Nov 2024 · Target: 2027
AI
Right, but late ●●●●●
“And I think in another year we'll probably be at 90%. I mean, I don't know, but might even be less than that.”
Said 11 Nov 2024 · Target: Nov 2025
AI
Pending ●●●●●
“This might seem radical, but life expectancy increased almost 2x in the 20th century (from ~40 years to ~75), so it’s “on trend” that the “compressed 21st” would double it again to 150.”
Said 11 Oct 2024 · Target: 2030s
HealthAI
Pending ●●●●●
“my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”
Said 11 Oct 2024 · Target: 2030s
HealthAI