Dario Amodei

In the 5-10 year "compressed 21st century" after powerful AI arrives, human lifespan will roughly double again, to about 150 years.

“This might seem radical, but life expectancy increased almost 2x in the 20th century (from ~40 years to ~75), so it’s “on trend” that the “compressed 21st” would double it again to 150.”

Said on

11 October 2024 · Essay "Machines of Loving Grace" on darioamodei.com, in the "Doubling of the human lifespan" item. Inferred window: his own expected arrival of powerful AI (~2026-2027) plus the 5-10 year compressed century, i.e. by end of 2037.

Source

Machines of Loving Grace · darioamodei.com

Should come true

2030s

How sure they sounded

"on trend"; the essay also says there is "certainly no guarantee this is biologically possible"

Categories

HealthAI

Importance

5 of 5 · Doubling the human lifespan would be a civilization-scale change.

Outcome

Not scored yet.