Dario Amodei

There is a decent chance "powerful AI" (smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most fields, working autonomously) arrives within 1-2 years (by early 2028), and a very strong chance it arrives within the next few years.

“not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1–2 years, but that there’s a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.”

Said on

26 January 2026 · Essay "The Adolescence of Technology"; framed as an assumption he holds to be at least somewhat correct

Source

The Adolescence of Technology · darioamodei.com

Should come true

Jan 2028

How sure they sounded

not definitely; a decent chance (1-2 years); a very strong chance (next few years)

Categories

AI

Importance

5 of 5 · AI smarter than Nobel laureates across most fields would be a civilization-scale change.

Outcome

Unresolvable

Hedge rule: the recorded 1-2 year claim is explicitly framed as "not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1-2 years, but that there's a decent chance it does", i.e. a stated possibility rather than a forecast. Scored unresolvable on that basis; his firmer "almost certainly no later than 2030" forecast is tracked separately as #204.

Evidence:

• https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology