James Hansen

Global mean temperature will rise during the 1980s (the 1980s will be warmer than the 1970s).

“there is a high probability of warming in the 1980s”

Said on

28 August 1981 · Abstract of Hansen et al., "Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide", Science 213, 957-966 (1981)

Source

Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (abstract) · NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Should come true

1980s

How sure they sounded

high probability

Categories

Climate

Importance

3 of 5 · Early test of greenhouse warming theory; mattered to the climate science field and policy debate.

Outcome

Accurate

NASA GISTEMP v4 annual anomalies rose across the 1980s (1980s mean about +0.24°C vs about +0.05°C in the 1970s, relative to 1951-1980), with 1981, 1983, 1987 and 1988 each near or at record levels.

Evidence:

• https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt