Pending ●●●●●
Tariff revenue will substantially replace the US federal income tax.
“Tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”EconomyPolitics
Donald Trump
45th and 47th President of the United States
PoliticianBusiness leader23predictions
3pending
3accurate
2late or partial
14inaccurate
21%accuracy
Predictions
Sort: newest · most important · target date
Partly right ●●●●●
All hostages held in Gaza will be released very soon (within days) after Israel and Hamas agreed to phase one of the peace plan on October 8, 2025.
“means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon”Geopolitics
Pending ●●●●●
The April 2025 tariffs will bring a large return of manufacturing jobs and factories to the United States.
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The United States will acquire Greenland (gain sovereignty or control of it) by the end of Trump's second term in January 2029.
“One way or the other, we're going to get it”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Trump will win Pennsylvania in the November 5, 2024 presidential election.
“Just 27 days from now, we are going to win Pennsylvania, we are going to defeat Lying Kamala Harris.”Elections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will win New York State in the November 5, 2024 presidential election.
“we are going to win New York.”Elections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US gasoline prices will fall below $2 a gallon.
“We're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon”EnergyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US grocery and consumer prices will fall soon after Trump takes office in January 2025 (by the end of 2025).
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Russia-Ukraine war will be settled before Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025.
“I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled before I even take office.”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will win Michigan in the November 3, 2020 presidential election.
“Two days from now, we are going to win the State of Michigan again”Elections
Partly right ●●●●●
At least five or six more countries will quickly normalize relations with Israel (join the Abraham Accords), within about six months of September 2020.
“we'll have at least five or six countries coming along very quickly”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The US will produce a COVID-19 vaccine before the end of 2020.
“We are delivering lifesaving therapies and will produce a vaccine before the end of the year, or maybe even sooner.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Trump will sign a full health care plan by about August 2, 2020 (within two weeks of July 19, 2020).
“We're signing a health care plan within two weeks”HealthPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A COVID-19 vaccine will be developed and available by the end of 2020.
“And I think we're going to be successful in doing it, and hopefully by the end of the year.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Total US COVID-19 deaths will stay substantially below 100,000.
“The minimum number was 100,000 lives, and I think we'll be substantially under that number”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The coronavirus (COVID-19) will disappear from the United States.
“It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The number of known US COVID-19 cases (15 at the time) will fall to close to zero within a couple of days.
“When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero”Health
Accurate ●●●●●
Over 400 miles of border wall will be built on the US-Mexico border by the end of 2020.
“We're going to have over 400 miles of wall built, much of it is already started, by the end of next year”Politics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
North Korea will not develop a nuclear-armed missile capable of reaching parts of the United States.
“North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen!”Geopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Under Trump's economic plan, US GDP growth will rise from about 1 percent to 4 percent a year.
“But we're bringing it from 1 percent up to 4 percent.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US trade deficit will fall sharply, by a record amount, during a Trump first term (2017-2020).
“You will see a drop like you've never seen before.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US coal-mining employment will recover substantially (miners put back to work) during a Trump first term (2017-2020).
“We're going to put the miners back to work.”EnergyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Mexico will pay for the construction of a wall on the US-Mexico border.
“Mexico, as sure as you're standing here, Mexico is going to pay for the wall.”PoliticsGeopolitics