Predictions
Sort: newest · most important · target date
Accurate ●●●●●
“This article claims the global market is around $2B/year in 2021 and is projected to grow around 30%/year. I predict it will grow faster.”
Said 7 Aug 2021 · Target: by 2025
AIMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
“We’re in a new chip shortage.”
Said 6 Aug 2021 · Target: 2026
TechnologyAI
Accurate ●●●●●
“Nowadays, hundreds of millions of people talk regularly to chatbots of some sort”
Said 6 Aug 2021 · Target: 2026
AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
“After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts.”
Said 6 Aug 2021 · Target: 2025
AI
Accurate ●●●●●
“China and USA are in a full-on chip battle now, with export controls and tariffs.”
Said 6 Aug 2021 · Target: 2024
GeopoliticsTechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
“So, the most compute spent on a single training run is something like 5x10^25 FLOPs.”
Said 6 Aug 2021 · Target: 2024
AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
“Not only that, but they are now typically fine-tuned in various ways--for example, to answer questions correctly, or produce engaging conversation as a chatbot.”
Said 6 Aug 2021 · Target: 2022
AI
Partly right ●●●●●
“OpenAI, Google, Facebook, and DeepMind all have gigantic multimodal transformers, similar in size to GPT-3 but trained on images, video, maybe audio too, and generally higher-quality data.”
Said 6 Aug 2021 · Target: 2022
AI