Daniel Kokotajlo

In 2026 there will be a new AI-driven chip shortage, with capital pouring into new fabs.

“We’re in a new chip shortage.”

Said on

6 August 2021 · 2026 section of his year-by-year AI scenario post

Source

What 2026 looks like · LessWrong

Should come true

2026

How sure they sounded

stated as fact in his best-guess scenario

Categories

TechnologyAI

Importance

3 of 5 · Chip supply affects the whole electronics industry

Outcome

Accurate Happened 15 February 2026.

AI data-center demand caused a severe DRAM/HBM memory chip shortage from late 2025 into 2026, with contract prices nearly doubling and Apple, Tesla and others warning of production constraints, alongside heavy fab investment. GPU supply also remained tight.

Evidence:

• https://fortune.com/2026/02/15/ai-demand-memory-chip-shortage-crisis-dram-hbm-micron-skhynix-samsung/
• https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-boom-memory-chip-shortage/