Dario Amodei

Within two to four years (by March 2029), AI models will be as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across many fields and able to do any remote computer work, including tasks lasting days to months.

“the same exponential trends, the same arguments that predicted that, predict that if we go forward another two years, three years, maybe four years, we will get to all of this. We will get to models that are as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across a whole bunch of fields.”

Said on

10 March 2025 · Council on Foreign Relations CEO Speaker Series, answering a question on AI's upside

Source

CEO Speaker Series With Dario Amodei of Anthropic · Council on Foreign Relations

Should come true

2029

How sure they sounded

we will get to; later in the same answer: "I'm maybe 70 or 80 percent confidence"

Categories

AI

Importance

5 of 5 · Nobel-level AI across fields would be a civilization-scale change.

Outcome

Not scored yet.