Michio Kaku

Moore's Law (doubling of transistor density roughly every two years) will collapse by around 2022.

“In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore's Law”

Said on

2 May 2012 · Videotaped Big Think interview, reported by Computerworld

Source

Physicist says Moore's Law is 'collapsing' · Computerworld

Should come true

2022

How sure they sounded

about ... or so, we will see

Categories

Technology

Importance

3 of 5 · The pace of chip scaling drives the whole semiconductor and computing industry.

Outcome

Partly right

By 2022 the classic two-year density doubling had clearly slowed (TSMC 3nm brought almost no SRAM scaling, and Nvidia's CEO declared Moore's Law dead in 2022), but transistor density kept rising and AMD and Intel argued it was still alive at higher cost. A slowdown rather than a collapse is a weaker version of the claim, so this close call is scored partial.

Evidence:

• https://www.techspot.com/news/96841-moore-law-isnt-dead-according-amd-but-has.html
• https://www.phonearena.com/news/NVIDIA-executive-says-rule-of-thumb-related-to-chip-performance-is-dead_id112601
• https://stratechery.com/2023/china-chips-and-moores-law/