Nouriel Roubini

US real GDP growth in 2025 will be lower than in 2024.

“Growth may remain above potential – given strong tailwinds – but it will be lower than in 2024.”

Said on

2 January 2025 · Project Syndicate column "The Good, the Bad, and the Uncertainty of the Trump Economy", republished by interest.co.nz on 2 Jan 2025

Source

The Good, the Bad, and the Uncertainty of the Trump economy · interest.co.nz / Project Syndicate

Should come true

2025

How sure they sounded

it will be

Categories

Economy

Importance

2 of 5 · A modest call on the pace of US growth; matters to markets but is a small directional claim.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2025.

US real GDP grew about 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, per BEA data as reported by NAHB.

Evidence:

• https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/04/2025-regional-and-state-level-gdp-data/
• https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product