Nouriel Roubini

US GDP will keep contracting throughout 2009, for a cumulative output loss of about 5%, in a recession lasting close to two years.

“U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.”

Said on

8 January 2009 · Forbes op-ed by Roubini, January 2009, quoted in full by Capitalmind

Source

Roubini predicts a bleak 2009 · Capitalmind

Should come true

2009

How sure they sounded

will continue to contract

Categories

Economy

Importance

4 of 5 · Forecast of the depth and length of the Great Recession in the world's largest economy.

Outcome

Partly right Happened 30 June 2009.

It was the longest and deepest post-war recession, as he said, but GDP did not contract throughout 2009: it grew from Q3 2009, the NBER put the trough in June 2009 (18 months, not close to two years), and the peak-to-trough output loss was about 4% rather than 5%. A weaker version of the forecast, so partial.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1