By 2020 a financial crisis will occur, followed by a global recession.
Partly right ●●●●●
“But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”
- Said on
- 14 September 2018 · Project Syndicate column "The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis" (with Brunello Rosa), quoted by MacroBusiness
- Source
- Doctor Doom returns · MacroBusiness
- Should come true
- 2020
- How sure they sounded
- will be ripe
- Categories
- EconomyBanking
- Importance
- 4 of 5 · Forecast of a global financial crisis and recession.
Outcome
Partly right Happened 1 March 2020.
A deep global recession did occur in 2020, with brief market turmoil in March 2020, but it was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic rather than the financial crisis and debt/policy conditions he described. Scored partial rather than accurate because the predicted mechanism (financial crisis first) did not happen.
- https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii
- https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
History
- 2026-10-16 23:05:43 · created by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:06:10 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:53:39 · categorized by claude