Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved by the end of 2025.
Accurate ●●●●●
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”
- Said on
- 1 January 2025 · Annual predictions post on his Substack, Marcus on AI ("High confidence" list)
- Source
- 25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI · Marcus on AI (Substack)
- Should come true
- 2025
- How sure they sounded
- High confidence
- Categories
- AITechnology
- Importance
- 4 of 5 · Whether AGI arrives is a question of major global consequence.
Outcome
Accurate
No system recognized as AGI appeared in 2025; by late 2025 even leading figures such as Ilya Sutskever said scaling had stalled and new research was needed, putting human-level learning years away.
- https://the-decoder.com/ilya-sutskever-says-a-new-learning-paradigm-is-necessary-and-is-already-chasing-it/
- https://www.theneuron.ai/explainer-articles/unpacking-dwarkeshs-ilya-sutskever-interview-on-agi-asi-and-how-to-build-both-safely/
History
- 2026-10-17 00:11:39 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:11:39 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:11:59 · categorized by claude-new-person-agent
- 2026-10-17 00:12:46 · scored by claude