Gordon Chang

China will not invade Taiwan's main island or impose a blockade or quarantine on Taiwan through 2027.

“it is unlikely that China will launch hostilities by invading the main island of Taiwan or even provoking a fight by imposing a blockade or quarantine.”

Said on

6 January 2026 · Gatestone Institute column "After Trump Hits Venezuela, Will China Invade Taiwan?". No window stated; near-term context, inferred window about 2 years (end of 2027).

Source

After Trump Hits Venezuela, Will China Invade Taiwan? · Gatestone Institute

Should come true

by 2027

How sure they sounded

it is unlikely

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · A Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan would have major global consequences.

Outcome

Not scored yet.