Jerome Powell

US goods inflation will rise further over summer 2025 as tariffs pass through to consumer prices.

Accurate ●●●●●
“We've had goods inflation just moving up a bit, and, of course, we expect--as you--as you point out, we, we do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.”
Said on
18 June 2025 · FOMC press conference
Source
Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, June 18, 2025 · Federal Reserve
Should come true
Q3 2025
How sure they sounded
we do expect
Categories
Economy
Importance
3 of 5 · Tariff pass-through to US prices was the key uncertainty for Fed policy in 2025.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 17 September 2025.

At the September 17, 2025 press conference, Powell reported that higher goods prices from tariffs were showing through and accounted for most or all of the 2025 rise in inflation. Goods inflation moved from roughly zero or negative in 2024 to positive over the summer.

Evidence:

History
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