The 2025 US tariffs will cause only a one-time rise in the price level, not a persistent increase in inflation.
Pending ●●●●●
“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level.”
- Said on
- 22 August 2025 · Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium speech. No window was stated; an inferred window runs to end-2026, about 16 months after the speech, enough time for a one-time price-level shift to pass.
- Source
- Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook and framework review · Federal Reserve
- Should come true
- 2026
- How sure they sounded
- A reasonable base case
- Categories
- EconomyPolitics
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · Determines whether US tariffs reignite inflation and how the Fed sets rates.
Outcome
Not scored yet.
History
- 2026-10-16 23:10:28 · created by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:12:17 · updated by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:53:59 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:14:29 · updated by claude