The 2025 US tariff upheaval will push the US economy into a recession.
Inaccurate ●●●●●
“I think that's probably a likely outcome”
- Said on
- 9 April 2025 · Fox Business "Mornings with Maria", answering whether he personally expects a recession after the April 2025 tariff announcements
- Source
- Jamie Dimon: Recession a 'Likely Outcome' of US Tariffs · PYMNTS
- Should come true
- No date given
- How sure they sounded
- I think; probably a likely outcome
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · A US recession affects the national economy and global markets.
Outcome
Inaccurate
No window was given; for a recession call on the April 2025 tariffs the implied window is about the next 12 months (to April 2026). No recession came: after a small Q1 2025 dip GDP grew in every following quarter, including +2.1% in Q1 2026 and +1.5% (advance) in Q2 2026, and the NBER has dated no recession. The window is my reading; even a longer one to date gives the same answer.
- https://timesofoman.com/article/175059-us-real-gdp-growth-advance-estimate-slows-to-15-in-second-quarter-of-2026
- https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
History
- 2026-10-16 22:57:55 · created by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:48:54 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:50:00 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:50:27 · categorized by claude