Larry Summers

The US economy will enter a recession by June 2024.

“And I think, given where we have gotten to, it's more likely than not that we will have a recession within the next two years.”

Said on

12 June 2022 · CNN State of the Union interview

Source

State of the Union transcript, June 12, 2022 · CNN

Should come true

Jun 2024

How sure they sounded

I think; more likely than not

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · A US recession matters to the national economy and to markets.

Outcome

Inaccurate

NBER has not dated any US recession after the April 2020 trough. Unemployment stayed between 3.4% and 4.1% from June 2022 to June 2024 (BLS), so no recession began within the two-year window.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
• https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000