Peter Thiel

The November 2024 US presidential election will not be close; one side will collapse in the final two months.

“My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close.”

Said on

10 September 2024 · Live appearance at the All-In Summit 2024 in Los Angeles (Sept 8-10, 2024; exact day approximate). He added: "One side is simply going to collapse in the next two months."

Source

Peter Thiel predicts the 2024 election won't be close: 'One side is simply going to collapse' · Business Insider (via Yahoo News)

Should come true

5 Nov 2024

How sure they sounded

My one contrarian view

Categories

Elections

Importance

3 of 5 · Shape of a US presidential election result.

Outcome

Partly right Happened 5 November 2024.

Trump won all seven swing states and 312-226 in the Electoral College, a clearer result than 2016 or 2020. But the national popular vote margin was only about 1.5 points, and Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were each decided by under 2 points, so "not close" and "collapse" only partly held; partial is the cautious call.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election