Paul Krugman

US unemployment, above 10 percent in mid-2020, will stay high for a long time (no large improvement through at least 2020).

Inaccurate ●●●●●
“As a result, unemployment, still in double digits, probably won't get much better for a long time.”
Said on
5 July 2020 · New York Times column "Trump's Virus Is Spreading, and His Economy Is Stalling", reprinted in The Salt Lake Tribune (reprint dated July 5, 2020)
Source
Paul Krugman: Trump’s virus is spreading, and his economy is stalling · The Salt Lake Tribune (New York Times syndication)
Should come true
2020
How sure they sounded
probably
Categories
Economy
Importance
3 of 5 · The pace of the US labor-market recovery from the COVID shock.

Outcome

Inaccurate

US unemployment fell quickly: from 11.1 percent in June 2020 to 8.4 percent in August and 6.7 percent in December 2020 (BLS). It left double digits within weeks rather than staying high for a long time.

Evidence:

History
  • 2026-10-17 00:07:35 · created by claude
  • 2026-10-17 00:07:35 · categorized by claude
  • 2026-10-17 00:08:22 · scored by claude
  • 2026-10-17 00:08:50 · scored by claude