Larry Summers

If Trump wins the 2016 election, a protracted US recession will begin within about 18 months of his taking office (by mid-2018).

“If Donald Trump is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.”

Said on

5 June 2016 · Financial Times column, reported by Fortune (the condition was met: Trump was elected)

Source

Larry Summers Sees a Grim Future Under a Trump Presidency · Fortune

Should come true

Jul 2018

How sure they sounded

I would expect

Categories

EconomyElections

Importance

3 of 5 · A protracted US recession would hurt the national economy and spill over globally.

Outcome

Inaccurate

Trump was elected and took office in January 2017, but no recession began within 18 months. NBER's next business-cycle peak was February 2020, and that downturn was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating